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Reading vs Exeter City — League One 2018

Reading
Reading
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Exeter City
Exeter City
3/4/2025League OneLeague One · Round 35Select Car Leasing Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Reading49%
×Draw25%
Exeter City25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reading
1.58
Exeter City
1.06

Reading creates 49% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 93 away

creates per match

Reading
1.58
Exeter City
1.05

allows per match

Reading
1.06
Exeter City
1.58

finishing

Reading+0.00on par
Exeter City+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Exeter City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Reading or draw
75%
Reading or Exeter City
75%
Draw or Exeter City
51%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+
26%
Exeter City wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals
79%
Reading 2+ goals
47%
Reading 3+ goals
21%
Exeter City 1+ goals
65%
Exeter City 2+ goals
29%
Exeter City 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)
66%
Exeter City (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.06 · 69 matches

Exeter City away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.58 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.58 + Exeter City defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.58

Exeter City attack 1.05 + Reading defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Reading scores more
49%
level
25%
Exeter City scores more
25%

Reading at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Reading 0–0 Exeter City

Reading and Exeter City drew 0-0 in League One on March 4, 2025.

The match was played at Select Car Leasing Stadium in Reading, Berkshire.