Reading 4–1 Doncaster: Result & Stats

Reading

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Doncaster

P. Pogrebnyak 90+7'

G. McCleary 80'

A. Le Fondre 39'

D. Guthrie 11'

T. Robinson 31'

10/19/2013

Championship · Round 12Madejski Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Reading74%

×Draw18%

Doncaster8%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReadingExpected goals in this matchDoncaster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

0.54

Reading

2.10

Doncaster

0.54

Reading creates 289% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

2.00

creates per match

0.40

0.67

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Reading

2.00

Doncaster

0.40

allows per match

Reading

0.67

Doncaster

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reading+0.00on par

Doncaster+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Doncaster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–19%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Reading or draw

92%

Reading or Doncaster

82%

Draw or Doncaster

26%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+

48%

Doncaster wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals

88%

Reading 2+ goals

62%

Reading 3+ goals

35%

Doncaster 1+ goals

42%

Doncaster 2+ goals

10%

Doncaster 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)

90%

Doncaster (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Doncaster away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 2.00 + Doncaster defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.10

Doncaster attack 0.40 + Reading defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Reading scores more

74%

level

18%

Doncaster scores more

8%

Reading at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

D. Guthrie

23'

T. Robinson← D. Furman

31'

T. Robinson

39'

A. Le Fondre

62'

H. Robson-Kanu← A. Le Fondre

64'

B. Paynter← C. Brown

72'

K. Bennett← J. Coppinger

73'

80'

83'

90+7'

Reading

Doncaster

1

5

2

14

32

4

▼

Furman

7

Duffy

19

Wellens

26

▼

Coppinger

18

Keegan

9

▼

1

18

6

2

5

15

20

⚽

▼

Guthrie

12

⚽

McCleary

37

▼

Obita

7

⚽

Pogrebnya

9

⚽

▼

Fondre

62'▲H. Robson-Kanu←▼A. Le Fondre

73'▲J. McAnuff←▼J. Obita

83'▲H. Akpan←▼D. Guthrie

Reading substitutes

19Robson-Kanu11McAnuff16Akpan3Kelly17Gorkšs22Blackman41Taylor

23'▲T. Robinson←▼D. Furman

64'▲B. Paynter←▼C. Brown

72'▲K. Bennett←▼J. Coppinger

Doncaster substitutes

22Robinson8Paynter23Bennett11Cotterill12McCullough13Maxted21Val

Championship: Reading 4–1 Doncaster

Reading beat Doncaster 4-1 in Championship on October 19, 2013.

Goals: D. Guthrie (11'), T. Robinson (31'), A. Le Fondre (39'), G. McCleary (80'), P. Pogrebnyak (90+7').

The match was played at Madejski Stadium in Reading, Berkshire.

Reading vs Doncaster — Championship 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Championship: Reading 4–1 Doncaster