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Reading vs Bradford — League One 2018

Reading
Reading
Preview
14:00
Bradford
Bradford
10/3/2026League OneLeague One · Round 9Select Car Leasing Stadium
45%
Reading
model favours
45%27%28%
1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Reading45%
×Draw27%
Bradford28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reading
1.35
Bradford
1.01

Reading creates 34% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

creates per match

Reading
1.36
Bradford
0.96

allows per match

Reading
1.06
Bradford
1.35

finishing

Reading+0.14scores more
Bradford-0.07on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Bradford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Reading or draw
72%
Reading or Bradford
73%
Draw or Bradford
55%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+
21%
Bradford wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals
74%
Reading 2+ goals
39%
Reading 3+ goals
15%
Bradford 1+ goals
64%
Bradford 2+ goals
27%
Bradford 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)
61%
Bradford (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.06 · 12 matches

Bradford away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.35 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.36 + Bradford defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.35

Bradford attack 0.96 + Reading defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Reading scores more
45%
level
27%
Bradford scores more
28%

Reading at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Reading
Balanced
Bradford
Defensively solid
51%Possession51%
75%Pass accuracy66%
11.7Shots12.5
1.42xGBiggest gap1.18
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
ReadingBradford

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

2
Reading
1
Draws
1
Bradford
Avg goals: 2BTTS: 25%
2–10–23–00–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Reading
LWLDL
Bradford
LWWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Reading face Bradford (League One)

League One returns with Reading hosting Bradford. Match starts October 3, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Reading host Bradford at Select Car Leasing Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.