Bradford 2–0 Reading: Result & Stats | League One

Bradford

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Reading

B. Pointon 84'

A. Sarcevic 56'

12/13/2025

League One · Round 20Valley Parade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Bradford45%

×Draw25%

Reading30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BradfordExpected goals in this matchReading

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.25

Bradford

1.58

Reading

1.25

Bradford creates 26% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

1.40

creates per match

1.49

1.02

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Bradford

1.40

Reading

1.49

allows per match

Bradford

1.02

Reading

1.76

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Bradford-0.18scores less

Reading+0.11scores more

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bradford ↓

Reading →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Bradford or draw

70%

Bradford or Reading

75%

Draw or Reading

55%

Winning margin

Bradford wins by 2+

23%

Reading wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Bradford 1+ goals

79%

Bradford 2+ goals

47%

Bradford 3+ goals

21%

Reading 1+ goals

71%

Reading 2+ goals

36%

Reading 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Bradford (draw refunded)

60%

Reading (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bradford at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.02 · 9 matches

Reading away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.76 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bradford attack 1.40 + Reading defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.58

Reading attack 1.49 + Bradford defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bradford scores more

45%

level

25%

Reading scores more

30%

Bradford at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bradford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

C. Kelly

Bradford · D

7.5

Match Events

41'

Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan

47'

Paudie O’Connor

56'

A. Sarcevic

62'

A. Yiadom← J. R. Dorsett A.

63'

J. Marriott← K. Doyle

73'

B. Pointon← A. Sarcevic

78'

L. Fraser← C. Savage

79'

W. Swan← S. Humphrys

79'

A. Garcia← K. Ehibhatiomhan

84'

B. Pointon↳ T. Wright

86'

Brad Halliday

88'

M. Camara← R. Williams

90+2'

Kelvin Abrefa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BradfordReading

Overview

46%Possession54%

10Total Shots8

1.15Expected Goals (xG)0.66

3Corners2

12Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots8

4On Target2

4Off Target4

2Blocked2

7Inside Box6

3Outside Box2

Passing

46%Possession54%

326Total Passes404

223Accurate Passes298

68%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0