Reading 3–0 Blackburn: Result & Stats

Reading

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Blackburn

Lucas João 78'

J. Hoilett 61'

T. Mcintyre 14'

8/17/2022

Championship · Round 4Select Car Leasing Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Reading40%

×Draw26%

Blackburn34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReadingExpected goals in this matchBlackburn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.25

Reading

1.40

Blackburn

1.25

Reading creates 12% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 194 away

1.38

creates per match

1.15

1.34

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Reading

1.38

Blackburn

1.15

allows per match

Reading

1.34

Blackburn

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reading+0.00on par

Blackburn+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Blackburn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Reading or draw

66%

Reading or Blackburn

74%

Draw or Blackburn

60%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+

19%

Blackburn wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals

75%

Reading 2+ goals

41%

Reading 3+ goals

17%

Blackburn 1+ goals

71%

Blackburn 2+ goals

36%

Blackburn 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)

55%

Blackburn (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.43 · 194 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.38 + Blackburn defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.40

Blackburn attack 1.15 + Reading defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Reading scores more

40%

level

26%

Blackburn scores more

34%

Reading at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

T. Fornah

Reading · M

7.7

Match Events

12'

Harry Pickering

14'

T. Mcintyre↳ T. Ince

46'

S. Gallagher← J. Vale

46'

46'

53'

55'

55'

61'

63'

Nesta Guinness-Walker

70'

Lucas João← S. Long

78'

Lucas João↳ T. Fornah

80'

K. Abrefa← N. Guinness-Walker

85'

T. Edun← B. Brereton

87'

Joe Lumley

90+6'

Mamadou Loum

90+2'

John Clarke← J. Hoilett

90+3'

T. Morton← A. Phillips

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ReadingBlackburn

Overview

35%Possession65%

12Total Shots8

7Corners3

8Fouls7

Shots

12Total Shots8

7On Target1

3Off Target4

2Blocked3

10Inside Box4

2Outside Box4

Passing

35%Possession65%

312Total Passes583

210Accurate Passes474

67%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls7

5Yellow Cards2