Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Reading vs Blackburn — Championship 2018

Reading
Reading
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Blackburn
Blackburn
J. Swift 57'
B. Dack 48'
A. Armstrong 8'
9/21/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 8Madejski Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Reading40%
×Draw26%
Blackburn34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reading
1.40
Blackburn
1.25

Reading creates 12% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 194 away

creates per match

Reading
1.38
Blackburn
1.15

allows per match

Reading
1.34
Blackburn
1.43

finishing

Reading+0.00on par
Blackburn+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Blackburn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Reading or draw
66%
Reading or Blackburn
74%
Draw or Blackburn
60%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+
19%
Blackburn wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals
75%
Reading 2+ goals
41%
Reading 3+ goals
17%
Blackburn 1+ goals
71%
Blackburn 2+ goals
36%
Blackburn 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)
55%
Blackburn (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.43 · 194 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.38 + Blackburn defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.40

Blackburn attack 1.15 + Reading defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Reading scores more
40%
level
26%
Blackburn scores more
34%

Reading at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
S. DowningBlackburnBlackburn · M
7.6

Match Events

8'
A. Armstrong↳ S. Downing
32'
Andy Yiadom
37'
Michael Morrison
48'
B. Dack↳ S. Gallagher
57'
Y. Meïté← T. Mcintyre
57'
J. Swift
65'
T. Blackett← M. Morrison
70'
L. Holtby← A. Armstrong
73'
B. Johnson← C. Evans
77'
D. Graham← S. Gallagher
79'
Greg Cunningham
87'
L. Boyé← Lucas João
90'
Elliott Bennett

Possession

53%Reading

Shots

17Reading

Pass accuracy

52%Reading

Statistics

ReadingBlackburn
Overview
53%Possession47%
17Total Shots9
3Corners3
14Fouls14
Shots
17Total Shots9
3On Target5
9Off Target4
5Blocked0
11Inside Box7
6Outside Box2
Passing
53%Possession47%
436Total Passes376
338Accurate Passes275
78%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls14
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Reading vs Blackburn

Blackburn beat Reading 2-1 in Championship on September 21, 2019.

Goals: A. Armstrong (8'), B. Dack (48'), J. Swift (57').

Reading controlled possession (53%) and registered 17 shots to 9.

The match was played at Madejski Stadium in Reading, Berkshire.