Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Reading vs Birmingham — League One 2018

Reading
Reading
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Birmingham
Birmingham
2/22/2025League OneLeague One · Round 33Select Car Leasing Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Reading34%
×Draw27%
Birmingham39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reading
1.23
Birmingham
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 23 away

creates per match

Reading
1.58
Birmingham
1.61

allows per match

Reading
1.06
Birmingham
0.87

finishing

Reading+0.00on par
Birmingham+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Birmingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Reading or draw
61%
Reading or Birmingham
73%
Draw or Birmingham
66%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+
15%
Birmingham wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals
71%
Reading 2+ goals
35%
Reading 3+ goals
13%
Birmingham 1+ goals
74%
Birmingham 2+ goals
38%
Birmingham 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)
47%
Birmingham (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.06 · 69 matches

Birmingham away — creates 1.61, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.58 + Birmingham defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.23

Birmingham attack 1.61 + Reading defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Reading scores more
34%
level
27%
Birmingham scores more
39%

Birmingham at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
M. CraigReadingReading · D
7.9

Match Events

9'
W. Willumsson← S. Wright
23'
Seung-Ho Paik
45+3'
Charlie Savage
61'
A. May← L. Dykes
72'
J. Wareham← K. Ehibhatiomhan
90+1'
B. Bodin← Mamadi Camará
90'
G. Hanley← K. Anderson
90'
T. Gardner-Hickman← K. Dowell

Possession

49%Reading

Shots

8Reading

Pass accuracy

49%Reading

Statistics

ReadingBirmingham
Overview
49%Possession51%
8Total Shots12
4Corners7
11Fouls12
Shots
8Total Shots12
4On Target3
3Off Target6
1Blocked3
4Inside Box8
4Outside Box4
Passing
49%Possession51%
399Total Passes413
275Accurate Passes302
69%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls12
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides3

League One: Reading 0–0 Birmingham

Reading and Birmingham drew 0-0 in League One on February 22, 2025.

Birmingham controlled possession (51%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at Select Car Leasing Stadium in Reading, Berkshire.