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Reading United vs Tormenta II — USL League Two 2018

Reading United
Reading Unitedadvanced
FT
3 – 2
Tormenta II
Tormenta II
7/29/2019USL League TwoUSL League Two · Championship - Semi-finalsErk Russell Park (Statesboro, Georgia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Reading United35%
×Draw22%
Tormenta II43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reading United
1.64
Tormenta II
1.84

Tormenta II creates 12% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 23 away

creates per match

Reading United
2.02
Tormenta II
2.13

allows per match

Reading United
1.55
Tormenta II
1.26

finishing

Reading United+0.00on par
Tormenta II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading United ↓

Tormenta II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Reading United or draw
57%
Reading United or Tormenta II
78%
Draw or Tormenta II
65%

Winning margin

Reading United wins by 2+
17%
Tormenta II wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Reading United 1+ goals
81%
Reading United 2+ goals
49%
Reading United 3+ goals
23%
Tormenta II 1+ goals
84%
Tormenta II 2+ goals
55%
Tormenta II 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Reading United (draw refunded)
45%
Tormenta II (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading United at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.55 · 47 matches

Tormenta II away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.26 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading United attack 2.02 + Tormenta II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.64

Tormenta II attack 2.13 + Reading United defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Reading United scores more
35%
level
22%
Tormenta II scores more
43%

Tormenta II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tormenta II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Reading United 3–2 Tormenta II

Reading United beat Tormenta II 3-2 in USL League Two on July 29, 2019.

The match was played at Erk Russell Park (Statesboro, Georgia).