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Reading United vs New York RB III — USL League Two 2018

Reading United
Reading United
FT
2 – 2
New York RB III
New York RB III
6/29/2019USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 5Bulldog Field (Whitfield, Pennsylvania)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Reading United43%
×Draw25%
New York RB III32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reading United
1.54
New York RB III
1.31

Reading United creates 18% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 14 away

creates per match

Reading United
2.02
New York RB III
1.07

allows per match

Reading United
1.55
New York RB III
1.07

finishing

Reading United+0.00on par
New York RB III+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading United ↓

New York RB III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Reading United or draw
68%
Reading United or New York RB III
75%
Draw or New York RB III
57%

Winning margin

Reading United wins by 2+
21%
New York RB III wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Reading United 1+ goals
79%
Reading United 2+ goals
45%
Reading United 3+ goals
20%
New York RB III 1+ goals
73%
New York RB III 2+ goals
38%
New York RB III 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Reading United (draw refunded)
57%
New York RB III (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading United at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.55 · 47 matches

New York RB III away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading United attack 2.02 + New York RB III defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.54

New York RB III attack 1.07 + Reading United defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Reading United scores more
43%
level
25%
New York RB III scores more
32%

Reading United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Reading United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Reading United 2–2 New York RB III

Reading United and New York RB III drew 2-2 in USL League Two on June 29, 2019.

The match was played at Bulldog Field (Whitfield, Pennsylvania).