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Zanaco vs National Assembly — Super League 2019

Zanaco
Zanaco
FT
4 – 1
National Assembly
National Assembly
10/28/2015Super LeagueSuper League · Round 28Sunset Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Zanaco58%
×Draw21%
National Assembly21%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zanaco
2.10
National Assembly
1.17

Zanaco creates 79% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 5 away

creates per match

Zanaco
1.40
National Assembly
1.40

allows per match

Zanaco
0.93
National Assembly
2.80

finishing

Zanaco+0.00on par
National Assembly+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zanaco ↓

National Assembly →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Zanaco or draw
79%
Zanaco or National Assembly
79%
Draw or National Assembly
42%

Winning margin

Zanaco wins by 2+
36%
National Assembly wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Zanaco 1+ goals
88%
Zanaco 2+ goals
62%
Zanaco 3+ goals
35%
National Assembly 1+ goals
69%
National Assembly 2+ goals
33%
National Assembly 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Zanaco (draw refunded)
74%
National Assembly (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zanaco at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.93 · 116 matches

National Assembly away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zanaco attack 1.40 + National Assembly defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.10

National Assembly attack 1.40 + Zanaco defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Zanaco scores more
58%
level
21%
National Assembly scores more
21%

Zanaco at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Zanaco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Zanaco 4–1 National Assembly

Zanaco beat National Assembly 4-1 in Super League on October 28, 2015.

The match was played at Sunset Stadium in Lusaka.