REAC 2–2 Újpest II: Result & Stats

REAC

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Újpest II

7/30/2023

NB III - Northeast · Northeast - 1Budai II László Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

REAC37%

×Draw24%

Újpest II39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

REACExpected goals in this matchÚjpest II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.53

REAC

1.48

Újpest II

1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 34 away

1.47

creates per match

1.26

1.80

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

REAC

1.47

Újpest II

1.26

allows per match

REAC

1.80

Újpest II

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

REAC+0.00on par

Újpest II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

REAC ↓

Újpest II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

REAC or draw

61%

REAC or Újpest II

76%

Draw or Újpest II

63%

Winning margin

REAC wins by 2+

17%

Újpest II wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

REAC 1+ goals

77%

REAC 2+ goals

43%

REAC 3+ goals

19%

Újpest II 1+ goals

78%

Újpest II 2+ goals

45%

Újpest II 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

REAC (draw refunded)

49%

Újpest II (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

REAC at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Újpest II away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.50 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

REAC attack 1.47 + Újpest II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

Újpest II attack 1.26 + REAC defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

REAC scores more

37%

level

24%

Újpest II scores more

39%

Újpest II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Újpest II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff