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REAC vs Tiszaújváros — NB III - Northeast 2019

REAC
REAC
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 4
Tiszaújváros
Tiszaújváros
10/22/2023NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 12Budai II László Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

REAC37%
×Draw23%
Tiszaújváros39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

REAC
1.60
Tiszaújváros
1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 110 away

creates per match

REAC
1.47
Tiszaújváros
1.48

allows per match

REAC
1.80
Tiszaújváros
1.74

finishing

REAC+0.00on par
Tiszaújváros+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

REAC ↓

Tiszaújváros →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

REAC or draw
61%
REAC or Tiszaújváros
77%
Draw or Tiszaújváros
63%

Winning margin

REAC wins by 2+
18%
Tiszaújváros wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

REAC 1+ goals
80%
REAC 2+ goals
47%
REAC 3+ goals
22%
Tiszaújváros 1+ goals
81%
Tiszaújváros 2+ goals
49%
Tiszaújváros 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

REAC (draw refunded)
49%
Tiszaújváros (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

REAC at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Tiszaújváros away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.74 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

REAC attack 1.47 + Tiszaújváros defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.60

Tiszaújváros attack 1.48 + REAC defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

REAC scores more
37%
level
23%
Tiszaújváros scores more
39%

Tiszaújváros at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tiszaújváros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: REAC 1–5 Tiszaújváros

Tiszaújváros beat REAC 5-1 in NB III - Northeast on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Budai II László Stadion in Budapest.