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REAC vs Salgótarjáni BTC — NB III - Northeast 2019

REAC
REAC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Salgótarjáni BTC
Salgótarjáni BTC
11/5/2023NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 14Budai II László Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

REAC46%
×Draw24%
Salgótarjáni BTC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

REAC
1.69
Salgótarjáni BTC
1.33

REAC creates 27% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 49 away

creates per match

REAC
1.47
Salgótarjáni BTC
0.86

allows per match

REAC
1.80
Salgótarjáni BTC
1.92

finishing

REAC+0.00on par
Salgótarjáni BTC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

REAC ↓

Salgótarjáni BTC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

REAC or draw
70%
REAC or Salgótarjáni BTC
76%
Draw or Salgótarjáni BTC
54%

Winning margin

REAC wins by 2+
24%
Salgótarjáni BTC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

REAC 1+ goals
82%
REAC 2+ goals
50%
REAC 3+ goals
24%
Salgótarjáni BTC 1+ goals
74%
Salgótarjáni BTC 2+ goals
38%
Salgótarjáni BTC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

REAC (draw refunded)
60%
Salgótarjáni BTC (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

REAC at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Salgótarjáni BTC away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.92 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

REAC attack 1.47 + Salgótarjáni BTC defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.69

Salgótarjáni BTC attack 0.86 + REAC defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

REAC scores more
46%
level
24%
Salgótarjáni BTC scores more
30%

REAC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "REAC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: REAC vs Salgótarjáni BTC

REAC beat Salgótarjáni BTC 2-1 in NB III - Northeast on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Budai II László Stadion in Budapest.