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REAC vs Putnok VSE — NB III - Northeast 2019

REAC
REAC
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Putnok VSE
Putnok VSE
9/24/2023NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 8Budai II László Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

REAC34%
×Draw23%
Putnok VSE43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

REAC
1.50
Putnok VSE
1.71

Putnok VSE creates 14% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 112 away

creates per match

REAC
1.47
Putnok VSE
1.63

allows per match

REAC
1.80
Putnok VSE
1.54

finishing

REAC+0.00on par
Putnok VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

REAC ↓

Putnok VSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

REAC or draw
57%
REAC or Putnok VSE
77%
Draw or Putnok VSE
66%

Winning margin

REAC wins by 2+
16%
Putnok VSE wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

REAC 1+ goals
78%
REAC 2+ goals
44%
REAC 3+ goals
19%
Putnok VSE 1+ goals
82%
Putnok VSE 2+ goals
51%
Putnok VSE 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

REAC (draw refunded)
44%
Putnok VSE (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

REAC at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Putnok VSE away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.54 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

REAC attack 1.47 + Putnok VSE defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.50

Putnok VSE attack 1.63 + REAC defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

REAC scores more
34%
level
23%
Putnok VSE scores more
43%

Putnok VSE at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Putnok VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: REAC vs Putnok VSE

Putnok VSE beat REAC 2-0 in NB III - Northeast on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Budai II László Stadion in Budapest.