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REAC vs FC Hatvan — NB III - Northeast 2019

REAC
REAC
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Hatvan
FC Hatvan
5/26/2024NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 30Budai II László Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

REAC45%
×Draw23%
FC Hatvan31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

REAC
1.75
FC Hatvan
1.42

REAC creates 23% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 91 away

creates per match

REAC
1.47
FC Hatvan
1.04

allows per match

REAC
1.80
FC Hatvan
2.03

finishing

REAC+0.00on par
FC Hatvan+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

REAC ↓

FC Hatvan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

REAC or draw
69%
REAC or FC Hatvan
77%
Draw or FC Hatvan
55%

Winning margin

REAC wins by 2+
24%
FC Hatvan wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

REAC 1+ goals
83%
REAC 2+ goals
52%
REAC 3+ goals
25%
FC Hatvan 1+ goals
76%
FC Hatvan 2+ goals
41%
FC Hatvan 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

REAC (draw refunded)
59%
FC Hatvan (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

REAC at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

FC Hatvan away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.03 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

REAC attack 1.47 + FC Hatvan defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.75

FC Hatvan attack 1.04 + REAC defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

REAC scores more
45%
level
23%
FC Hatvan scores more
31%

REAC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "REAC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: REAC vs FC Hatvan

REAC beat FC Hatvan 3-0 in NB III - Northeast on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Budai II László Stadion in Budapest.