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REAC vs DEAC — NB III - Northeast 2019

REAC
REAC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
DEAC
DEAC
8/19/2023NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 4Budai II László Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

REAC28%
×Draw24%
DEAC48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

REAC
1.27
DEAC
1.73

DEAC creates 36% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 92 away

creates per match

REAC
1.47
DEAC
1.65

allows per match

REAC
1.80
DEAC
1.07

finishing

REAC+0.00on par
DEAC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

REAC ↓

DEAC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

REAC or draw
52%
REAC or DEAC
76%
Draw or DEAC
72%

Winning margin

REAC wins by 2+
12%
DEAC wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

REAC 1+ goals
72%
REAC 2+ goals
36%
REAC 3+ goals
14%
DEAC 1+ goals
82%
DEAC 2+ goals
52%
DEAC 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

REAC (draw refunded)
37%
DEAC (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

REAC at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

DEAC away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.07 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

REAC attack 1.47 + DEAC defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.27

DEAC attack 1.65 + REAC defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

REAC scores more
28%
level
24%
DEAC scores more
48%

DEAC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "DEAC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

REAC 1 – 2 DEAC

DEAC beat REAC 2-1 in NB III - Northeast on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Budai II László Stadion in Budapest.