Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

RCP Valverdeño vs Montehermoso — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

RCP Valverdeño
RCP Valverdeño
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Montehermoso
Montehermoso
2/9/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 21Estadio Municipal San Roque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

RCP Valverdeño50%
×Draw25%
Montehermoso25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RCP Valverdeño
1.60
Montehermoso
1.06

RCP Valverdeño creates 51% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 49 away

creates per match

RCP Valverdeño
1.11
Montehermoso
0.55

allows per match

RCP Valverdeño
1.57
Montehermoso
2.08

finishing

RCP Valverdeño+0.00on par
Montehermoso+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RCP Valverdeño ↓

Montehermoso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

RCP Valverdeño or draw
75%
RCP Valverdeño or Montehermoso
75%
Draw or Montehermoso
50%

Winning margin

RCP Valverdeño wins by 2+
26%
Montehermoso wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

RCP Valverdeño 1+ goals
80%
RCP Valverdeño 2+ goals
47%
RCP Valverdeño 3+ goals
22%
Montehermoso 1+ goals
65%
Montehermoso 2+ goals
29%
Montehermoso 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

RCP Valverdeño (draw refunded)
66%
Montehermoso (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RCP Valverdeño at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.57 · 46 matches

Montehermoso away — creates 0.55, concedes 2.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RCP Valverdeño attack 1.11 + Montehermoso defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.60

Montehermoso attack 0.55 + RCP Valverdeño defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

RCP Valverdeño scores more
50%
level
25%
Montehermoso scores more
25%

RCP Valverdeño at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "RCP Valverdeño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: RCP Valverdeño 2–1 Montehermoso

RCP Valverdeño beat Montehermoso 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on February 9, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal San Roque in Valverde de Leganés.