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RCP Valverdeño vs Miajadas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

RCP Valverdeño
RCP Valverdeño
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Miajadas
Miajadas
11/1/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 3Estadio Municipal San Roque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

RCP Valverdeño39%
×Draw27%
Miajadas34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RCP Valverdeño
1.29
Miajadas
1.17

RCP Valverdeño creates 10% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 57 away

creates per match

RCP Valverdeño
1.11
Miajadas
0.77

allows per match

RCP Valverdeño
1.57
Miajadas
1.46

finishing

RCP Valverdeño+0.00on par
Miajadas+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RCP Valverdeño ↓

Miajadas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

RCP Valverdeño or draw
66%
RCP Valverdeño or Miajadas
73%
Draw or Miajadas
61%

Winning margin

RCP Valverdeño wins by 2+
18%
Miajadas wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

RCP Valverdeño 1+ goals
72%
RCP Valverdeño 2+ goals
37%
RCP Valverdeño 3+ goals
14%
Miajadas 1+ goals
69%
Miajadas 2+ goals
33%
Miajadas 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

RCP Valverdeño (draw refunded)
54%
Miajadas (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RCP Valverdeño at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.57 · 46 matches

Miajadas away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.46 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RCP Valverdeño attack 1.11 + Miajadas defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.29

Miajadas attack 0.77 + RCP Valverdeño defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

RCP Valverdeño scores more
39%
level
27%
Miajadas scores more
34%

RCP Valverdeño at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "RCP Valverdeño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RCP Valverdeño vs Miajadas

Miajadas beat RCP Valverdeño 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on November 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal San Roque in Valverde de Leganés.