RCP Valverdeño 4–1 Fuente Cantos: Result & Stats

RCP Valverdeño

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Fuente Cantos

4/7/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 29Estadio Municipal San Roque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

RCP Valverdeño41%

×Draw26%

Fuente Cantos33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RCP ValverdeñoExpected goals in this matchFuente Cantos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.23

RCP Valverdeño

1.39

Fuente Cantos

1.23

RCP Valverdeño creates 13% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 61 away

1.11

creates per match

0.89

1.57

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

RCP Valverdeño

1.11

Fuente Cantos

0.89

allows per match

RCP Valverdeño

1.57

Fuente Cantos

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RCP Valverdeño+0.00on par

Fuente Cantos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RCP Valverdeño ↓

Fuente Cantos →

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

RCP Valverdeño or draw

67%

RCP Valverdeño or Fuente Cantos

74%

Draw or Fuente Cantos

59%

Winning margin

RCP Valverdeño wins by 2+

19%

Fuente Cantos wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

RCP Valverdeño 1+ goals

75%

RCP Valverdeño 2+ goals

40%

RCP Valverdeño 3+ goals

16%

Fuente Cantos 1+ goals

71%

Fuente Cantos 2+ goals

35%

Fuente Cantos 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

RCP Valverdeño (draw refunded)

55%

Fuente Cantos (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

RCP Valverdeño at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.57 · 46 matches

Fuente Cantos away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.67 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

RCP Valverdeño attack 1.11 + Fuente Cantos defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.39

Fuente Cantos attack 0.89 + RCP Valverdeño defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

RCP Valverdeño scores more

41%

level

26%

Fuente Cantos scores more

33%

RCP Valverdeño at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "RCP Valverdeño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff