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RCK vs Vita Club — Ligue 1 2019

RCK
RCK
FT
1 – 1
Vita Club
Vita Club
4/14/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 18Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

RCK25%
×Draw29%
Vita Club47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RCK
0.85
Vita Club
1.29

Vita Club creates 52% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 93 away

creates per match

RCK
0.95
Vita Club
1.33

allows per match

RCK
1.26
Vita Club
0.76

finishing

RCK+0.00on par
Vita Club+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RCK ↓

Vita Club →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

RCK or draw
53%
RCK or Vita Club
71%
Draw or Vita Club
75%

Winning margin

RCK wins by 2+
8%
Vita Club wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

RCK 1+ goals
57%
RCK 2+ goals
21%
RCK 3+ goals
5%
Vita Club 1+ goals
72%
Vita Club 2+ goals
37%
Vita Club 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

RCK (draw refunded)
34%
Vita Club (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RCK at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

Vita Club away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.76 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RCK attack 0.95 + Vita Club defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.85

Vita Club attack 1.33 + RCK defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

RCK scores more
25%
level
29%
Vita Club scores more
47%

Vita Club at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Vita Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

RCK 1 – 1 Vita Club

RCK and Vita Club drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on April 14, 2021.

The match was played at Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte in Kinshasa.