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RCK vs Simba — Ligue 1 2019

RCK
RCK
FT
2 – 0
Simba
Simba
10/12/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 7Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

RCK37%
×Draw30%
Simba34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RCK
1.10
Simba
1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 89 away

creates per match

RCK
0.95
Simba
0.84

allows per match

RCK
1.26
Simba
1.25

finishing

RCK+0.00on par
Simba+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RCK ↓

Simba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

RCK or draw
66%
RCK or Simba
70%
Draw or Simba
63%

Winning margin

RCK wins by 2+
15%
Simba wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

RCK 1+ goals
67%
RCK 2+ goals
30%
RCK 3+ goals
10%
Simba 1+ goals
65%
Simba 2+ goals
28%
Simba 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

RCK (draw refunded)
52%
Simba (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RCK at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

Simba away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.25 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RCK attack 0.95 + Simba defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.10

Simba attack 0.84 + RCK defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

RCK scores more
37%
level
30%
Simba scores more
34%

RCK at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "RCK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

RCK 2 – 0 Simba

RCK beat Simba 2-0 in Ligue 1 on October 12, 2019.

The match was played at Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte in Kinshasa.