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RCK vs Saint Eloi Lupopo — Ligue 1 2019

RCK
RCK
FT
1 – 1
Saint Eloi Lupopo
Saint Eloi Lupopo
11/27/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 7Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

RCK23%
×Draw28%
Saint Eloi Lupopo49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RCK
0.86
Saint Eloi Lupopo
1.38

Saint Eloi Lupopo creates 60% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 98 away

creates per match

RCK
0.95
Saint Eloi Lupopo
1.49

allows per match

RCK
1.26
Saint Eloi Lupopo
0.77

finishing

RCK+0.00on par
Saint Eloi Lupopo+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RCK ↓

Saint Eloi Lupopo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

RCK or draw
51%
RCK or Saint Eloi Lupopo
72%
Draw or Saint Eloi Lupopo
77%

Winning margin

RCK wins by 2+
8%
Saint Eloi Lupopo wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

RCK 1+ goals
58%
RCK 2+ goals
21%
RCK 3+ goals
6%
Saint Eloi Lupopo 1+ goals
75%
Saint Eloi Lupopo 2+ goals
40%
Saint Eloi Lupopo 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

RCK (draw refunded)
32%
Saint Eloi Lupopo (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RCK at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

Saint Eloi Lupopo away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.77 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RCK attack 0.95 + Saint Eloi Lupopo defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.86

Saint Eloi Lupopo attack 1.49 + RCK defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

RCK scores more
23%
level
28%
Saint Eloi Lupopo scores more
49%

Saint Eloi Lupopo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Saint Eloi Lupopo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: RCK 1–1 Saint Eloi Lupopo

RCK and Saint Eloi Lupopo drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on November 27, 2020.

The match was played at Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte in Kinshasa.