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RCK vs Motema Pembe — Ligue 1 2019

RCK
RCK
FT
0 – 3
Motema Pembe
Motema Pembe
8/30/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 3Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

RCK29%
×Draw29%
Motema Pembe42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RCK
0.94
Motema Pembe
1.20

Motema Pembe creates 28% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 83 away

creates per match

RCK
0.95
Motema Pembe
1.14

allows per match

RCK
1.26
Motema Pembe
0.94

finishing

RCK+0.00on par
Motema Pembe+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RCK ↓

Motema Pembe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

RCK or draw
58%
RCK or Motema Pembe
71%
Draw or Motema Pembe
71%

Winning margin

RCK wins by 2+
10%
Motema Pembe wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

RCK 1+ goals
61%
RCK 2+ goals
24%
RCK 3+ goals
7%
Motema Pembe 1+ goals
70%
Motema Pembe 2+ goals
34%
Motema Pembe 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

RCK (draw refunded)
41%
Motema Pembe (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RCK at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

Motema Pembe away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.94 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RCK attack 0.95 + Motema Pembe defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.94

Motema Pembe attack 1.14 + RCK defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

RCK scores more
29%
level
29%
Motema Pembe scores more
42%

Motema Pembe at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Motema Pembe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

RCK 0 – 3 Motema Pembe

Motema Pembe beat RCK 3-0 in Ligue 1 on August 30, 2019.

The match was played at Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte in Kinshasa.