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RCA vs Unistars — Division di Honor 2019

RCA
RCA
FT
10 – 1
HT: 6 – 0
Unistars
Unistars
10/19/2024Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Round 3Compleho Deportivo Frans Figaroa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

RCA84%
×Draw10%
Unistars6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RCA
3.59
Unistars
0.91

RCA creates 295% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 9 away

creates per match

RCA
2.30
Unistars
0.67

allows per match

RCA
1.15
Unistars
4.89

finishing

RCA+0.00on par
Unistars+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RCA ↓

Unistars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–18%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

RCA or draw
94%
RCA or Unistars
90%
Draw or Unistars
16%

Winning margin

RCA wins by 2+
68%
Unistars wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

RCA 1+ goals
97%
RCA 2+ goals
86%
RCA 3+ goals
67%
Unistars 1+ goals
60%
Unistars 2+ goals
23%
Unistars 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

RCA (draw refunded)
94%
Unistars (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RCA at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.15 · 60 matches

Unistars away — creates 0.67, concedes 4.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RCA attack 2.30 + Unistars defence 4.89 → ÷2 → 3.59

Unistars attack 0.67 + RCA defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

RCA scores more
84%
level
10%
Unistars scores more
6%

RCA at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "RCA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

RCA 10 – 1 Unistars

RCA beat Unistars 10-1 in Division di Honor on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Compleho Deportivo Frans Figaroa in Noord.