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RCA vs Santa Fe — Division di Honor 2019

RCA
RCA
FT
3 – 2
Santa Fe
Santa Fe
9/11/2022Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Round 1Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

RCA59%
×Draw20%
Santa Fe22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RCA
2.35
Santa Fe
1.38

RCA creates 70% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 10 away

creates per match

RCA
2.30
Santa Fe
1.60

allows per match

RCA
1.15
Santa Fe
2.40

finishing

RCA+0.00on par
Santa Fe+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RCA ↓

Santa Fe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

RCA or draw
78%
RCA or Santa Fe
80%
Draw or Santa Fe
41%

Winning margin

RCA wins by 2+
37%
Santa Fe wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

RCA 1+ goals
90%
RCA 2+ goals
68%
RCA 3+ goals
41%
Santa Fe 1+ goals
75%
Santa Fe 2+ goals
40%
Santa Fe 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

RCA (draw refunded)
73%
Santa Fe (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RCA at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.15 · 60 matches

Santa Fe away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RCA attack 2.30 + Santa Fe defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.35

Santa Fe attack 1.60 + RCA defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

RCA scores more
59%
level
20%
Santa Fe scores more
22%

RCA at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "RCA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division di Honor: RCA 3–2 Santa Fe

RCA beat Santa Fe 3-2 in Division di Honor on September 11, 2022.

The match was played at Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad in Oranjestad.