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RCA vs Real Koyari — Division di Honor 2019

RCA
RCA
FT
7 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Real Koyari
Real Koyari
11/30/2025Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

RCA86%
×Draw9%
Real Koyari5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RCA
3.87
Real Koyari
0.96

RCA creates 303% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 9 away

creates per match

RCA
2.30
Real Koyari
0.78

allows per match

RCA
1.15
Real Koyari
5.44

finishing

RCA+0.00on par
Real Koyari+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RCA ↓

Real Koyari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–18%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
68%32%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

RCA or draw
95%
RCA or Real Koyari
91%
Draw or Real Koyari
14%

Winning margin

RCA wins by 2+
71%
Real Koyari wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

RCA 1+ goals
98%
RCA 2+ goals
89%
RCA 3+ goals
71%
Real Koyari 1+ goals
62%
Real Koyari 2+ goals
25%
Real Koyari 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

RCA (draw refunded)
94%
Real Koyari (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RCA at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.15 · 60 matches

Real Koyari away — creates 0.78, concedes 5.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RCA attack 2.30 + Real Koyari defence 5.44 → ÷2 → 3.87

Real Koyari attack 0.78 + RCA defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

RCA scores more
86%
level
9%
Real Koyari scores more
5%

RCA at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "RCA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division di Honor: RCA 7–1 Real Koyari

RCA beat Real Koyari 7-1 in Division di Honor on November 30, 2025.