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RC Relizane vs USM Alger — Ligue 1 2018

RC Relizane
RC Relizane
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
USM Alger
USM Alger
3/25/2017Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 17Stade Tahar Zoughari (Relizane)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

RC Relizane37%
×Draw29%
USM Alger34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RC Relizane
1.17
USM Alger
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 123 away

creates per match

RC Relizane
1.18
USM Alger
0.87

allows per match

RC Relizane
1.33
USM Alger
1.15

finishing

RC Relizane+0.00on par
USM Alger+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RC Relizane ↓

USM Alger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

RC Relizane or draw
66%
RC Relizane or USM Alger
71%
Draw or USM Alger
63%

Winning margin

RC Relizane wins by 2+
16%
USM Alger wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

RC Relizane 1+ goals
69%
RC Relizane 2+ goals
33%
RC Relizane 3+ goals
11%
USM Alger 1+ goals
67%
USM Alger 2+ goals
30%
USM Alger 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

RC Relizane (draw refunded)
52%
USM Alger (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RC Relizane at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.33 · 39 matches

USM Alger away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.15 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RC Relizane attack 1.18 + USM Alger defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

USM Alger attack 0.87 + RC Relizane defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

RC Relizane scores more
37%
level
29%
USM Alger scores more
34%

RC Relizane at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "RC Relizane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: RC Relizane 2–0 USM Alger

RC Relizane beat USM Alger 2-0 in Ligue 1 on March 25, 2017.

The match was played at Stade Tahar Zoughari (Relizane).