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RC Relizane vs Paradou AC — Ligue 1 2018

RC Relizane
RC Relizane
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Paradou AC
Paradou AC
11/27/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 1Stade Tahar Zoughari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

RC Relizane38%
×Draw27%
Paradou AC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RC Relizane
1.25
Paradou AC
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 120 away

creates per match

RC Relizane
1.18
Paradou AC
1.07

allows per match

RC Relizane
1.33
Paradou AC
1.32

finishing

RC Relizane+0.00on par
Paradou AC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RC Relizane ↓

Paradou AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

RC Relizane or draw
65%
RC Relizane or Paradou AC
73%
Draw or Paradou AC
62%

Winning margin

RC Relizane wins by 2+
16%
Paradou AC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

RC Relizane 1+ goals
71%
RC Relizane 2+ goals
36%
RC Relizane 3+ goals
13%
Paradou AC 1+ goals
70%
Paradou AC 2+ goals
34%
Paradou AC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

RC Relizane (draw refunded)
52%
Paradou AC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RC Relizane at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.33 · 39 matches

Paradou AC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.32 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RC Relizane attack 1.18 + Paradou AC defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Paradou AC attack 1.07 + RC Relizane defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

RC Relizane scores more
38%
level
27%
Paradou AC scores more
35%

RC Relizane at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "RC Relizane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: RC Relizane 1–1 Paradou AC

RC Relizane and Paradou AC drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on November 27, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Tahar Zoughari in Relizane.