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RC Relizane vs NC Magra — Ligue 1 2018

RC Relizane
RC Relizane
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
NC Magra
NC Magra
2/5/2022Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 17Stade Tahar Zoughari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

RC Relizane44%
×Draw28%
NC Magra28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RC Relizane
1.34
NC Magra
1.01

RC Relizane creates 33% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 92 away

creates per match

RC Relizane
1.18
NC Magra
0.68

allows per match

RC Relizane
1.33
NC Magra
1.50

finishing

RC Relizane+0.00on par
NC Magra+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RC Relizane ↓

NC Magra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

RC Relizane or draw
72%
RC Relizane or NC Magra
72%
Draw or NC Magra
56%

Winning margin

RC Relizane wins by 2+
21%
NC Magra wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

RC Relizane 1+ goals
74%
RC Relizane 2+ goals
39%
RC Relizane 3+ goals
15%
NC Magra 1+ goals
64%
NC Magra 2+ goals
27%
NC Magra 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

RC Relizane (draw refunded)
61%
NC Magra (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RC Relizane at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.33 · 39 matches

NC Magra away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.50 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RC Relizane attack 1.18 + NC Magra defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.34

NC Magra attack 0.68 + RC Relizane defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

RC Relizane scores more
44%
level
28%
NC Magra scores more
28%

RC Relizane at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "RC Relizane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RC Relizane vs NC Magra

NC Magra beat RC Relizane 2-1 in Ligue 1 on February 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Tahar Zoughari in Relizane.