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RC Relizane vs MC Alger — Ligue 1 2018

RC Relizane
RC Relizane
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
MC Alger
MC Alger
6/7/2017Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 28Stade Tahar Zoughari (Relizane)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

RC Relizane34%
×Draw29%
MC Alger37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RC Relizane
1.06
MC Alger
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 124 away

creates per match

RC Relizane
1.18
MC Alger
0.92

allows per match

RC Relizane
1.33
MC Alger
0.94

finishing

RC Relizane+0.00on par
MC Alger+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RC Relizane ↓

MC Alger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

RC Relizane or draw
63%
RC Relizane or MC Alger
71%
Draw or MC Alger
66%

Winning margin

RC Relizane wins by 2+
13%
MC Alger wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

RC Relizane 1+ goals
65%
RC Relizane 2+ goals
29%
RC Relizane 3+ goals
9%
MC Alger 1+ goals
68%
MC Alger 2+ goals
31%
MC Alger 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

RC Relizane (draw refunded)
48%
MC Alger (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RC Relizane at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.33 · 39 matches

MC Alger away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.94 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RC Relizane attack 1.18 + MC Alger defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.06

MC Alger attack 0.92 + RC Relizane defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

RC Relizane scores more
34%
level
29%
MC Alger scores more
37%

MC Alger at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "MC Alger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RC Relizane vs MC Alger

RC Relizane beat MC Alger 3-2 in Ligue 1 on June 7, 2017.

The match was played at Stade Tahar Zoughari (Relizane).