RC Relizane 0–0 JS Saoura: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

RC Relizane

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

JS Saoura

12/11/2020

Ligue 1 · Round 3Stade Tahar Zoughari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

RC Relizane36%

×Draw29%

JS Saoura35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RC RelizaneExpected goals in this matchJS Saoura

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.11

RC Relizane

1.14

JS Saoura

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 107 away

1.08

creates per match

0.84

1.39

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

RC Relizane

1.08

JS Saoura

0.84

allows per match

RC Relizane

1.39

JS Saoura

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RC Relizane+0.00on par

JS Saoura+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RC Relizane ↓

JS Saoura →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

RC Relizane or draw

65%

RC Relizane or JS Saoura

71%

Draw or JS Saoura

64%

Winning margin

RC Relizane wins by 2+

15%

JS Saoura wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

RC Relizane 1+ goals

68%

RC Relizane 2+ goals

32%

RC Relizane 3+ goals

11%

JS Saoura 1+ goals

67%

JS Saoura 2+ goals

30%

JS Saoura 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

RC Relizane (draw refunded)

51%

JS Saoura (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RC Relizane at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.39 · 36 matches

JS Saoura away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.20 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RC Relizane attack 1.08 + JS Saoura defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.14

JS Saoura attack 0.84 + RC Relizane defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

RC Relizane scores more

36%

level

29%

JS Saoura scores more

35%

RC Relizane at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "RC Relizane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'

S. Gharbi← A. Chadli

79'

M. Droueche← H. Zaidi

80'

A. Belalia← A. Balegh

86'

N. Ould Hamou← M. Kadri

87'

M. Hammia← S. Yahia Chérif

RC

JS

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Cherif El Ouazani

62'▲S. Gharbi←▼A. Chadli

80'▲A. Belalia←▼A. Balegh

86'▲N. Ould Hamou←▼M. Kadri

RC Relizane substitutes

GharbiBelaliaHamou

Manager: M. Ighil

79'▲M. Droueche←▼H. Zaidi

87'▲M. Hammia←▼S. Yahia Chérif

JS Saoura substitutes

DrouecheHammia