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RC Relizane vs Hussein Dey — Ligue 1 2018

RC Relizane
RC Relizane
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Hussein Dey
Hussein Dey
1/21/2022Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 14Stade Tahar Zoughari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

RC Relizane43%
×Draw27%
Hussein Dey29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RC Relizane
1.35
Hussein Dey
1.06

RC Relizane creates 27% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 63 away

creates per match

RC Relizane
1.18
Hussein Dey
0.79

allows per match

RC Relizane
1.33
Hussein Dey
1.52

finishing

RC Relizane+0.00on par
Hussein Dey+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RC Relizane ↓

Hussein Dey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

RC Relizane or draw
71%
RC Relizane or Hussein Dey
73%
Draw or Hussein Dey
57%

Winning margin

RC Relizane wins by 2+
20%
Hussein Dey wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

RC Relizane 1+ goals
74%
RC Relizane 2+ goals
39%
RC Relizane 3+ goals
15%
Hussein Dey 1+ goals
65%
Hussein Dey 2+ goals
29%
Hussein Dey 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

RC Relizane (draw refunded)
60%
Hussein Dey (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RC Relizane at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.33 · 39 matches

Hussein Dey away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.52 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RC Relizane attack 1.18 + Hussein Dey defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.35

Hussein Dey attack 0.79 + RC Relizane defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

RC Relizane scores more
43%
level
27%
Hussein Dey scores more
29%

RC Relizane at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "RC Relizane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: RC Relizane 2–1 Hussein Dey

RC Relizane beat Hussein Dey 2-1 in Ligue 1 on January 21, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Tahar Zoughari in Relizane.