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RC Relizane vs ASO Chlef — Ligue 1 2018

RC Relizane
RC Relizane
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
ASO Chlef
ASO Chlef
3/21/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 19Stade Akit Lotfi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

RC Relizane40%
×Draw27%
ASO Chlef32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RC Relizane
1.29
ASO Chlef
1.13

RC Relizane creates 14% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 106 away

creates per match

RC Relizane
1.18
ASO Chlef
0.92

allows per match

RC Relizane
1.33
ASO Chlef
1.40

finishing

RC Relizane+0.00on par
ASO Chlef+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RC Relizane ↓

ASO Chlef →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

RC Relizane or draw
68%
RC Relizane or ASO Chlef
73%
Draw or ASO Chlef
60%

Winning margin

RC Relizane wins by 2+
18%
ASO Chlef wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

RC Relizane 1+ goals
72%
RC Relizane 2+ goals
37%
RC Relizane 3+ goals
14%
ASO Chlef 1+ goals
68%
ASO Chlef 2+ goals
31%
ASO Chlef 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

RC Relizane (draw refunded)
55%
ASO Chlef (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RC Relizane at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.33 · 39 matches

ASO Chlef away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.40 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RC Relizane attack 1.18 + ASO Chlef defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.29

ASO Chlef attack 0.92 + RC Relizane defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

RC Relizane scores more
40%
level
27%
ASO Chlef scores more
32%

RC Relizane at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "RC Relizane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RC Relizane vs ASO Chlef

RC Relizane and ASO Chlef drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on March 21, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Akit Lotfi in Tlemcen.