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RC Catarroja vs Villarreal III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

RC Catarroja
RC Catarroja
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Villarreal III
Villarreal III
1/17/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

RC Catarroja33%
×Draw28%
Villarreal III39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RC Catarroja
1.10
Villarreal III
1.24

Villarreal III creates 13% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 112 away

creates per match

RC Catarroja
0.98
Villarreal III
1.38

allows per match

RC Catarroja
1.10
Villarreal III
1.23

finishing

RC Catarroja+0.00on par
Villarreal III+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RC Catarroja ↓

Villarreal III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

RC Catarroja or draw
61%
RC Catarroja or Villarreal III
72%
Draw or Villarreal III
67%

Winning margin

RC Catarroja wins by 2+
13%
Villarreal III wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

RC Catarroja 1+ goals
67%
RC Catarroja 2+ goals
30%
RC Catarroja 3+ goals
10%
Villarreal III 1+ goals
71%
Villarreal III 2+ goals
35%
Villarreal III 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

RC Catarroja (draw refunded)
45%
Villarreal III (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RC Catarroja at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.10 · 62 matches

Villarreal III away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RC Catarroja attack 0.98 + Villarreal III defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.10

Villarreal III attack 1.38 + RC Catarroja defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

RC Catarroja scores more
33%
level
28%
Villarreal III scores more
39%

Villarreal III at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Villarreal III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RC Catarroja vs Villarreal III

Villarreal III beat RC Catarroja 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on January 17, 2026.