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RC Catarroja vs Hércules II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

RC Catarroja
RC Catarroja
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Hércules II
Hércules II
3/27/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 32Polideportivo Municipal El Perdiguer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

RC Catarroja39%
×Draw30%
Hércules II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RC Catarroja
1.10
Hércules II
0.96

RC Catarroja creates 15% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 78 away

creates per match

RC Catarroja
0.98
Hércules II
0.81

allows per match

RC Catarroja
1.10
Hércules II
1.22

finishing

RC Catarroja+0.00on par
Hércules II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RC Catarroja ↓

Hércules II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

RC Catarroja or draw
69%
RC Catarroja or Hércules II
70%
Draw or Hércules II
61%

Winning margin

RC Catarroja wins by 2+
16%
Hércules II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

RC Catarroja 1+ goals
67%
RC Catarroja 2+ goals
30%
RC Catarroja 3+ goals
10%
Hércules II 1+ goals
62%
Hércules II 2+ goals
25%
Hércules II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

RC Catarroja (draw refunded)
55%
Hércules II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RC Catarroja at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.10 · 62 matches

Hércules II away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.22 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RC Catarroja attack 0.98 + Hércules II defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.10

Hércules II attack 0.81 + RC Catarroja defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

RC Catarroja scores more
39%
level
30%
Hércules II scores more
31%

RC Catarroja at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "RC Catarroja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RC Catarroja vs Hércules II

Hércules II beat RC Catarroja 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on March 27, 2022.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal El Perdiguer in Aldaia.