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RC Catarroja vs Benigànim — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

RC Catarroja
RC Catarroja
CANC
22:00
Benigànim
Benigànim
5/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 38Campo Municipal El Terrer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

RC Catarroja59%
×Draw23%
Benigànim18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RC Catarroja
1.82
Benigànim
0.90

RC Catarroja creates 102% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 44 away

creates per match

RC Catarroja
0.98
Benigànim
0.70

allows per match

RC Catarroja
1.10
Benigànim
2.66

finishing

RC Catarroja+0.00on par
Benigànim+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RC Catarroja ↓

Benigànim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

RC Catarroja or draw
82%
RC Catarroja or Benigànim
77%
Draw or Benigànim
41%

Winning margin

RC Catarroja wins by 2+
34%
Benigànim wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

RC Catarroja 1+ goals
84%
RC Catarroja 2+ goals
54%
RC Catarroja 3+ goals
27%
Benigànim 1+ goals
59%
Benigànim 2+ goals
23%
Benigànim 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

RC Catarroja (draw refunded)
76%
Benigànim (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RC Catarroja at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.10 · 62 matches

Benigànim away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.66 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RC Catarroja attack 0.98 + Benigànim defence 2.66 → ÷2 → 1.82

Benigànim attack 0.70 + RC Catarroja defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

RC Catarroja scores more
59%
level
23%
Benigànim scores more
18%

RC Catarroja at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "RC Catarroja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: RC Catarroja host Benigànim

May 16, 2020: RC Catarroja take on Benigànim in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

RC Catarroja host Benigànim at Campo Municipal El Terrer.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.