RC Catarroja vs Acero: Preview & Prediction

RC Catarroja

CANC

00:00

Acero

4/26/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 35Campo Municipal El Terrer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

RC Catarroja40%

×Draw30%

Acero30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RC CatarrojaExpected goals in this matchAcero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.93

RC Catarroja

1.14

Acero

0.93

RC Catarroja creates 23% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 77 away

0.98

creates per match

0.75

1.10

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

RC Catarroja

0.98

Acero

0.75

allows per match

RC Catarroja

1.10

Acero

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RC Catarroja+0.00on par

Acero+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RC Catarroja ↓

Acero →

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

RC Catarroja or draw

70%

RC Catarroja or Acero

70%

Draw or Acero

60%

Winning margin

RC Catarroja wins by 2+

17%

Acero wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

RC Catarroja 1+ goals

68%

RC Catarroja 2+ goals

32%

RC Catarroja 3+ goals

11%

Acero 1+ goals

61%

Acero 2+ goals

24%

Acero 3+ goals

Draw no bet

RC Catarroja (draw refunded)

58%

Acero (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

RC Catarroja at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.10 · 62 matches

Acero away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.29 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

RC Catarroja attack 0.98 + Acero defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.14

Acero attack 0.75 + RC Catarroja defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

RC Catarroja scores more

40%

level

30%

Acero scores more

30%

RC Catarroja at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "RC Catarroja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: RC Catarroja host Acero

April 26, 2020: RC Catarroja take on Acero in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

RC Catarroja host Acero at Campo Municipal El Terrer.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

RC Catarroja vs Acero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Preview: RC Catarroja host Acero