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RC Arba vs Olympique Medea — League #187 2026

RC Arba
RC Arba
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Olympique Medea
Olympique Medea
11/25/2023League #187League #187 · West - 6Stade Smaïl-Makhlouf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

RC Arba48%
×Draw26%
Olympique Medea26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RC Arba
1.48
Olympique Medea
1.02

RC Arba creates 45% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 34 away

creates per match

RC Arba
1.25
Olympique Medea
0.79

allows per match

RC Arba
1.25
Olympique Medea
1.71

finishing

RC Arba+0.00on par
Olympique Medea+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RC Arba ↓

Olympique Medea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

RC Arba or draw
74%
RC Arba or Olympique Medea
74%
Draw or Olympique Medea
52%

Winning margin

RC Arba wins by 2+
24%
Olympique Medea wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

RC Arba 1+ goals
77%
RC Arba 2+ goals
43%
RC Arba 3+ goals
19%
Olympique Medea 1+ goals
64%
Olympique Medea 2+ goals
27%
Olympique Medea 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

RC Arba (draw refunded)
65%
Olympique Medea (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RC Arba at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Olympique Medea away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.71 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RC Arba attack 1.25 + Olympique Medea defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.48

Olympique Medea attack 0.79 + RC Arba defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

RC Arba scores more
48%
level
26%
Olympique Medea scores more
26%

RC Arba at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "RC Arba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #187: RC Arba 0–1 Olympique Medea

Olympique Medea beat RC Arba 1-0 in League #187 on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Smaïl-Makhlouf in Larbaâ.