RC Arba 0–0 HB Chelghoum Laïd: Result & Stats

RC Arba

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

HB Chelghoum Laïd

11/7/2021

Ligue 1 · Round 3Stade Mohamed Reggaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

RC Arba61%

×Draw22%

HB Chelghoum Laïd18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RC ArbaExpected goals in this matchHB Chelghoum Laïd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

0.96

RC Arba

1.96

HB Chelghoum Laïd

0.96

RC Arba creates 104% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 32 away

1.61

creates per match

0.78

1.15

allows per match

2.31

creates per match

RC Arba

1.61

HB Chelghoum Laïd

0.78

allows per match

RC Arba

1.15

HB Chelghoum Laïd

2.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RC Arba+0.00on par

HB Chelghoum Laïd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RC Arba ↓

HB Chelghoum Laïd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

RC Arba or draw

82%

RC Arba or HB Chelghoum Laïd

78%

Draw or HB Chelghoum Laïd

39%

Winning margin

RC Arba wins by 2+

36%

HB Chelghoum Laïd wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

RC Arba 1+ goals

86%

RC Arba 2+ goals

58%

RC Arba 3+ goals

31%

HB Chelghoum Laïd 1+ goals

62%

HB Chelghoum Laïd 2+ goals

25%

HB Chelghoum Laïd 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

RC Arba (draw refunded)

77%

HB Chelghoum Laïd (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RC Arba at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.15 · 33 matches

HB Chelghoum Laïd away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.31 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RC Arba attack 1.61 + HB Chelghoum Laïd defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.96

HB Chelghoum Laïd attack 0.78 + RC Arba defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

RC Arba scores more

61%

level

22%

HB Chelghoum Laïd scores more

18%

RC Arba at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "RC Arba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff