Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

RC Arba vs Amal BOU Saada — League #187 2026

RC Arba
RC Arba
FT
3 – 1
Amal BOU Saada
Amal BOU Saada
5/8/2021League #187League #187 · Center - 15Stade Smaïl-Makhlouf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

RC Arba47%
×Draw26%
Amal BOU Saada27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RC Arba
1.50
Amal BOU Saada
1.07

RC Arba creates 40% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 19 away

creates per match

RC Arba
1.25
Amal BOU Saada
0.89

allows per match

RC Arba
1.25
Amal BOU Saada
1.74

finishing

RC Arba+0.00on par
Amal BOU Saada+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RC Arba ↓

Amal BOU Saada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

RC Arba or draw
73%
RC Arba or Amal BOU Saada
74%
Draw or Amal BOU Saada
53%

Winning margin

RC Arba wins by 2+
24%
Amal BOU Saada wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

RC Arba 1+ goals
78%
RC Arba 2+ goals
44%
RC Arba 3+ goals
19%
Amal BOU Saada 1+ goals
66%
Amal BOU Saada 2+ goals
29%
Amal BOU Saada 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

RC Arba (draw refunded)
64%
Amal BOU Saada (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RC Arba at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Amal BOU Saada away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RC Arba attack 1.25 + Amal BOU Saada defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.50

Amal BOU Saada attack 0.89 + RC Arba defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

RC Arba scores more
47%
level
26%
Amal BOU Saada scores more
27%

RC Arba at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "RC Arba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #187: RC Arba 3–1 Amal BOU Saada

RC Arba beat Amal BOU Saada 3-1 in League #187 on May 8, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Smaïl-Makhlouf in Larbaâ.