Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

RB Leipzig vs Red Bull Salzburg — UEFA Europa League 2026

RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Red Bull Salzburg
Red Bull Salzburg
9/20/2018UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 1Red Bull Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

RB Leipzig46%
×Draw23%
Red Bull Salzburg30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RB Leipzig
1.75
Red Bull Salzburg
1.37

RB Leipzig creates 28% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

creates per match

RB Leipzig
1.50
Red Bull Salzburg
1.57

allows per match

RB Leipzig
1.17
Red Bull Salzburg
2.00

finishing

RB Leipzig+0.00on par
Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RB Leipzig ↓

Red Bull Salzburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

RB Leipzig or draw
70%
RB Leipzig or Red Bull Salzburg
77%
Draw or Red Bull Salzburg
54%

Winning margin

RB Leipzig wins by 2+
25%
Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

RB Leipzig 1+ goals
83%
RB Leipzig 2+ goals
52%
RB Leipzig 3+ goals
25%
Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals
75%
Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals
40%
Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

RB Leipzig (draw refunded)
61%
Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RB Leipzig at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Red Bull Salzburg away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RB Leipzig attack 1.50 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.57 + RB Leipzig defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

RB Leipzig scores more
46%
level
23%
Red Bull Salzburg scores more
30%

RB Leipzig at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "RB Leipzig will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RB Leipzig vs Red Bull Salzburg

Red Bull Salzburg beat RB Leipzig 3-2 in UEFA Europa League on September 20, 2018.

The match was played at Red Bull Arena in Leipzig.