Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

RB Leipzig vs FC ST. Gallen — Friendlies Clubs 2026

RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC ST. Gallen
FC ST. Gallen
1/6/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3La Manga Club Football Centre A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

RB Leipzig80%
×Draw12%
FC ST. Gallen7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RB Leipzig
2.94
FC ST. Gallen
0.78

RB Leipzig creates 277% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

RB Leipzig
4.00
FC ST. Gallen
1.22

allows per match

RB Leipzig
0.33
FC ST. Gallen
1.89

finishing

RB Leipzig+0.00on par
FC ST. Gallen+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RB Leipzig ↓

FC ST. Gallen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

RB Leipzig or draw
93%
RB Leipzig or FC ST. Gallen
88%
Draw or FC ST. Gallen
20%

Winning margin

RB Leipzig wins by 2+
61%
FC ST. Gallen wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

RB Leipzig 1+ goals
95%
RB Leipzig 2+ goals
79%
RB Leipzig 3+ goals
55%
FC ST. Gallen 1+ goals
54%
FC ST. Gallen 2+ goals
18%
FC ST. Gallen 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

RB Leipzig (draw refunded)
92%
FC ST. Gallen (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RB Leipzig at home — creates 4.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

FC ST. Gallen away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RB Leipzig attack 4.00 + FC ST. Gallen defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.94

FC ST. Gallen attack 1.22 + RB Leipzig defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

RB Leipzig scores more
80%
level
12%
FC ST. Gallen scores more
7%

RB Leipzig at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "RB Leipzig will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RB Leipzig vs FC ST. Gallen

RB Leipzig beat FC ST. Gallen 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 6, 2024.

The match was played at La Manga Club Football Centre A in La Manga.