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RB Leipzig vs Atalanta — UEFA Europa League 2018

RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atalanta
Atalanta
4/7/2022UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Quarter-finalsRed Bull Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

RB Leipzig20%
×Draw20%
Atalanta60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RB Leipzig
1.25
Atalanta
2.25

Atalanta creates 80% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

RB Leipzig
2.11
Atalanta
3.40

allows per match

RB Leipzig
1.11
Atalanta
0.40

finishing

RB Leipzig+0.00on par
Atalanta+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RB Leipzig ↓

Atalanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

RB Leipzig or draw
40%
RB Leipzig or Atalanta
80%
Draw or Atalanta
80%

Winning margin

RB Leipzig wins by 2+
8%
Atalanta wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

RB Leipzig 1+ goals
71%
RB Leipzig 2+ goals
36%
RB Leipzig 3+ goals
13%
Atalanta 1+ goals
89%
Atalanta 2+ goals
65%
Atalanta 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

RB Leipzig (draw refunded)
26%
Atalanta (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RB Leipzig at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Atalanta away — creates 3.40, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RB Leipzig attack 2.11 + Atalanta defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 1.25

Atalanta attack 3.40 + RB Leipzig defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

RB Leipzig scores more
20%
level
20%
Atalanta scores more
60%

Atalanta at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa League: RB Leipzig 1–1 Atalanta

RB Leipzig and Atalanta drew 1-1 in UEFA Europa League on April 7, 2022.

The match was played at Red Bull Arena in Leipzig.