RB Leipzig U19 1–1 Union Berlin U19: Result & Stats

RB Leipzig U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Union Berlin U19

3/22/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group A - 7Trainingszentrum RB Leipzig Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

RB Leipzig U1949%

×Draw21%

Union Berlin U1930%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RB Leipzig U19Expected goals in this matchUnion Berlin U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.65

RB Leipzig U19

2.12

Union Berlin U19

1.65

RB Leipzig U19 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 70 away

2.54

creates per match

2.03

1.27

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

RB Leipzig U19

2.54

Union Berlin U19

2.03

allows per match

RB Leipzig U19

1.27

Union Berlin U19

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RB Leipzig U19+0.00on par

Union Berlin U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RB Leipzig U19 ↓

Union Berlin U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

RB Leipzig U19 or draw

70%

RB Leipzig U19 or Union Berlin U19

79%

Draw or Union Berlin U19

51%

Winning margin

RB Leipzig U19 wins by 2+

28%

Union Berlin U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

RB Leipzig U19 1+ goals

88%

RB Leipzig U19 2+ goals

62%

RB Leipzig U19 3+ goals

35%

Union Berlin U19 1+ goals

81%

Union Berlin U19 2+ goals

49%

Union Berlin U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

RB Leipzig U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Union Berlin U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RB Leipzig U19 at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.27 · 70 matches

Union Berlin U19 away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.69 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RB Leipzig U19 attack 2.54 + Union Berlin U19 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.12

Union Berlin U19 attack 2.03 + RB Leipzig U19 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

RB Leipzig U19 scores more

49%

level

21%

Union Berlin U19 scores more

30%

RB Leipzig U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "RB Leipzig U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 Bundesliga: RB Leipzig U19 1–1 Union Berlin U19

RB Leipzig U19 and Union Berlin U19 drew 1-1 in U19 Bundesliga on March 22, 2025.

The match was played at Trainingszentrum RB Leipzig Platz 1 in Leipzig.

RB Leipzig U19 vs Union Berlin U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: RB Leipzig U19 1–1 Union Berlin U19