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RB Leipzig U19 vs St. Pauli U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

RB Leipzig U19
RB Leipzig U19
CANC
10:00
St. Pauli U19
St. Pauli U19
3/14/2021U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 15Trainingszentrum RB Leipzig Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

RB Leipzig U1953%
×Draw20%
St. Pauli U1927%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RB Leipzig U19
2.34
St. Pauli U19
1.64

RB Leipzig U19 creates 43% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 72 away

creates per match

RB Leipzig U19
2.54
St. Pauli U19
2.01

allows per match

RB Leipzig U19
1.27
St. Pauli U19
2.14

finishing

RB Leipzig U19+0.00on par
St. Pauli U19+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RB Leipzig U19 ↓

St. Pauli U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

RB Leipzig U19 or draw
73%
RB Leipzig U19 or St. Pauli U19
80%
Draw or St. Pauli U19
47%

Winning margin

RB Leipzig U19 wins by 2+
33%
St. Pauli U19 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

RB Leipzig U19 1+ goals
90%
RB Leipzig U19 2+ goals
67%
RB Leipzig U19 3+ goals
41%
St. Pauli U19 1+ goals
81%
St. Pauli U19 2+ goals
49%
St. Pauli U19 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

RB Leipzig U19 (draw refunded)
66%
St. Pauli U19 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RB Leipzig U19 at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.27 · 70 matches

St. Pauli U19 away — creates 2.01, concedes 2.14 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RB Leipzig U19 attack 2.54 + St. Pauli U19 defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.34

St. Pauli U19 attack 2.01 + RB Leipzig U19 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

RB Leipzig U19 scores more
53%
level
20%
St. Pauli U19 scores more
27%

RB Leipzig U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "RB Leipzig U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

RB Leipzig U19 face St. Pauli U19 (U19 Bundesliga)

U19 Bundesliga returns with RB Leipzig U19 hosting St. Pauli U19. Match starts March 14, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

RB Leipzig U19 host St. Pauli U19 at Trainingszentrum RB Leipzig Platz 1.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.