RB Leipzig U19 0–1 Karlsruher SC U19

RB Leipzig U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Karlsruher SC U19

T. Schunck 30'

4/5/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group A - 9Trainingszentrum RB Leipzig Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

RB Leipzig U1951%

×Draw21%

Karlsruher SC U1928%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RB Leipzig U19Expected goals in this matchKarlsruher SC U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

1.50

RB Leipzig U19

2.07

Karlsruher SC U19

1.50

RB Leipzig U19 creates 38% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 74 away

2.55

creates per match

1.73

1.27

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

RB Leipzig U19

2.55

Karlsruher SC U19

1.73

allows per match

RB Leipzig U19

1.27

Karlsruher SC U19

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RB Leipzig U19+0.00on par

Karlsruher SC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RB Leipzig U19 ↓

Karlsruher SC U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

RB Leipzig U19 or draw

72%

RB Leipzig U19 or Karlsruher SC U19

79%

Draw or Karlsruher SC U19

49%

Winning margin

RB Leipzig U19 wins by 2+

30%

Karlsruher SC U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

RB Leipzig U19 1+ goals

87%

RB Leipzig U19 2+ goals

61%

RB Leipzig U19 3+ goals

34%

Karlsruher SC U19 1+ goals

78%

Karlsruher SC U19 2+ goals

44%

Karlsruher SC U19 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

RB Leipzig U19 (draw refunded)

64%

Karlsruher SC U19 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RB Leipzig U19 at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.27 · 74 matches

Karlsruher SC U19 away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.59 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RB Leipzig U19 attack 2.55 + Karlsruher SC U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 2.07

Karlsruher SC U19 attack 1.73 + RB Leipzig U19 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

RB Leipzig U19 scores more

51%

level

21%

Karlsruher SC U19 scores more

28%

RB Leipzig U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "RB Leipzig U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

T. Schunck↳ K. Çırpan

60'

J. Masanka Bungi← L. Voufack

60'

D. Klapija← Abdul Al Khalaf

71'

L. Schößler← V. Gebel

71'

M. Şen← N. Behr

77'

S. Guggenbühler← K. Çırpan

82'

N. Weißbach← A. Gerth

85'

M. Mutz← D. Zor

85'

B. El-Dor← E. Laghrissi

85'

L. Rega← L. Parduzi

RB

Karlsruher

1

Bärtl

5

Manai

4

Mitakidis

3

▼

Parduzi

16

Arbai

8

A

▼

Çırpan

6

Kritzer

10

▼

Zor

9

⚽

Schunck

14

▼

Behr

13

▼

33

4

8

19

▼

Voufack

24

▼

Gebel

17

▼

26

12

9

28

15

▼

Khalaf

Manager: S. Heidinger

60'▲J. Masanka Bungi←▼L. Voufack

60'▲D. Klapija←▼Abdul Al Khalaf

71'▲L. Schößler←▼V. Gebel

82'▲N. Weißbach←▼A. Gerth

RB Leipzig U19 substitutes

20Bungi29Klapija10Schößler30Weißbach2Heyer1Janosch5Hennig

Manager: R. Kettemann

71'▲M. Şen←▼N. Behr

77'▲S. Guggenbühler←▼K. Çırpan

85'▲M. Mutz←▼D. Zor

85'▲B. El-Dor←▼E. Laghrissi

85'▲L. Rega←▼L. Parduzi

Karlsruher SC U19 substitutes

7Şen15Guggenbühler19Mutz18El-Dor17Rega22Retter12Batolov

U19 Bundesliga: RB Leipzig U19 0–1 Karlsruher SC U19

Karlsruher SC U19 beat RB Leipzig U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on April 5, 2025.

Goals: T. Schunck (30').

The match was played at Trainingszentrum RB Leipzig Platz 1 in Leipzig.

RB Leipzig U19 vs Karlsruher SC U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: RB Leipzig U19 0–1 Karlsruher SC U19