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RB Leipzig U19 vs Hertha BSC U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

RB Leipzig U19
RB Leipzig U19
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Hertha BSC U19
Hertha BSC U19
4/27/2024U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 24Trainingszentrum RB Leipzig Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

RB Leipzig U1943%
×Draw21%
Hertha BSC U1936%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RB Leipzig U19
2.02
Hertha BSC U19
1.82

RB Leipzig U19 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 71 away

creates per match

RB Leipzig U19
2.54
Hertha BSC U19
2.38

allows per match

RB Leipzig U19
1.27
Hertha BSC U19
1.49

finishing

RB Leipzig U19+0.00on par
Hertha BSC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RB Leipzig U19 ↓

Hertha BSC U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

RB Leipzig U19 or draw
64%
RB Leipzig U19 or Hertha BSC U19
79%
Draw or Hertha BSC U19
57%

Winning margin

RB Leipzig U19 wins by 2+
24%
Hertha BSC U19 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

RB Leipzig U19 1+ goals
87%
RB Leipzig U19 2+ goals
60%
RB Leipzig U19 3+ goals
33%
Hertha BSC U19 1+ goals
84%
Hertha BSC U19 2+ goals
54%
Hertha BSC U19 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

RB Leipzig U19 (draw refunded)
55%
Hertha BSC U19 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RB Leipzig U19 at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.27 · 70 matches

Hertha BSC U19 away — creates 2.38, concedes 1.49 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RB Leipzig U19 attack 2.54 + Hertha BSC U19 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 2.02

Hertha BSC U19 attack 2.38 + RB Leipzig U19 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

RB Leipzig U19 scores more
43%
level
21%
Hertha BSC U19 scores more
36%

RB Leipzig U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "RB Leipzig U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RB Leipzig U19 vs Hertha BSC U19

Hertha BSC U19 beat RB Leipzig U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Trainingszentrum RB Leipzig Platz 1 in Leipzig.