RB Leipzig U19 0–1 Chemnitzer FC U19

RB Leipzig U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Chemnitzer FC U19

P. Kämpfer 51'

10/16/2021

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 7Trainingszentrum RB Leipzig Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

RB Leipzig U1965%

×Draw17%

Chemnitzer FC U1918%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RB Leipzig U19Expected goals in this matchChemnitzer FC U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.65

1.34

RB Leipzig U19

2.65

Chemnitzer FC U19

1.34

RB Leipzig U19 creates 98% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 51 away

2.55

creates per match

1.41

1.27

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

RB Leipzig U19

2.55

Chemnitzer FC U19

1.41

allows per match

RB Leipzig U19

1.27

Chemnitzer FC U19

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RB Leipzig U19+0.00on par

Chemnitzer FC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RB Leipzig U19 ↓

Chemnitzer FC U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

RB Leipzig U19 or draw

82%

RB Leipzig U19 or Chemnitzer FC U19

83%

Draw or Chemnitzer FC U19

35%

Winning margin

RB Leipzig U19 wins by 2+

44%

Chemnitzer FC U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

RB Leipzig U19 1+ goals

93%

RB Leipzig U19 2+ goals

74%

RB Leipzig U19 3+ goals

48%

Chemnitzer FC U19 1+ goals

74%

Chemnitzer FC U19 2+ goals

39%

Chemnitzer FC U19 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

RB Leipzig U19 (draw refunded)

78%

Chemnitzer FC U19 (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RB Leipzig U19 at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.27 · 74 matches

Chemnitzer FC U19 away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.75 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RB Leipzig U19 attack 2.55 + Chemnitzer FC U19 defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.65

Chemnitzer FC U19 attack 1.41 + RB Leipzig U19 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

RB Leipzig U19 scores more

65%

level

17%

Chemnitzer FC U19 scores more

18%

RB Leipzig U19 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "RB Leipzig U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

P. Weber← S. Ba

46'

Y. Freischlad← K. Smorgol

51'

P. Kämpfer

66'

F. Pawletta← P. Kämpfer

72'

O. Köhl← R. Friedrich

87'

J. Winter← S. Bonnah

87'

Y. Abayomi← M. Schreiber

90+5'

J. Wolter← J. Dittrich

90'

S. Selishta← F. Heidler

RB

Chemnitzer

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Meyer

19'▲P. Weber←▼S. Ba

46'▲Y. Freischlad←▼K. Smorgol

72'▲O. Köhl←▼R. Friedrich

87'▲J. Winter←▼S. Bonnah

RB Leipzig U19 substitutes

WeberFreischladKöhlWinterEutingerSiepler

Manager: J. Stephan

66'▲F. Pawletta←▼P. Kämpfer

87'▲Y. Abayomi←▼M. Schreiber

90+5'▲J. Wolter←▼J. Dittrich

90'▲S. Selishta←▼F. Heidler

Chemnitzer FC U19 substitutes

PawlettaAbayomiWolterSelishtaDorfsWindsorWeidauer

U19 Bundesliga: RB Leipzig U19 0–1 Chemnitzer FC U19

Chemnitzer FC U19 beat RB Leipzig U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on October 16, 2021.

Goals: P. Kämpfer (51').

The match was played at Trainingszentrum RB Leipzig Platz 1 in Leipzig.

RB Leipzig U19 vs Chemnitzer FC U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: RB Leipzig U19 0–1 Chemnitzer FC U19