RB Leipzig U19 2–1 BAK 07 U19: Result & Stats

RB Leipzig U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

BAK 07 U19

T. Kaufmann 79'

O. Köhl 62' (pen)

D.Kanyi 90+4'

10/1/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 5Trainingszentrum RB Leipzig Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

RB Leipzig U1966%

×Draw17%

BAK 07 U1917%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RB Leipzig U19Expected goals in this matchBAK 07 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.67

1.30

RB Leipzig U19

2.67

BAK 07 U19

1.30

RB Leipzig U19 creates 105% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 33 away

2.55

creates per match

1.33

1.27

allows per match

2.79

creates per match

RB Leipzig U19

2.55

BAK 07 U19

1.33

allows per match

RB Leipzig U19

1.27

BAK 07 U19

2.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RB Leipzig U19+0.00on par

BAK 07 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RB Leipzig U19 ↓

BAK 07 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

RB Leipzig U19 or draw

83%

RB Leipzig U19 or BAK 07 U19

83%

Draw or BAK 07 U19

34%

Winning margin

RB Leipzig U19 wins by 2+

45%

BAK 07 U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

RB Leipzig U19 1+ goals

93%

RB Leipzig U19 2+ goals

74%

RB Leipzig U19 3+ goals

49%

BAK 07 U19 1+ goals

73%

BAK 07 U19 2+ goals

37%

BAK 07 U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

RB Leipzig U19 (draw refunded)

80%

BAK 07 U19 (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RB Leipzig U19 at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.27 · 74 matches

BAK 07 U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.79 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RB Leipzig U19 attack 2.55 + BAK 07 U19 defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.67

BAK 07 U19 attack 1.33 + RB Leipzig U19 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

RB Leipzig U19 scores more

66%

level

17%

BAK 07 U19 scores more

17%

RB Leipzig U19 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "RB Leipzig U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'

D.Kanyi← M. Kalini

62'

T. Kaufmann← J. Winter

62'

O. KöhlPenalty

73'

A. Bayindir← C. Zajkowski

79'

T. Kaufmann

82'

H. Berjaoui← A. Akdağ

84'

D. Ihendu← O. Köhl

84'

K. Pestel← T. Meyer

84'

Y. Freischlad← N. Atom

88'

A. Aksoy← S. Akan

90+4'

D.Kanyi

RB

BAK

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Köhl

Manager: D. Meyer

62'▲T. Kaufmann←▼J. Winter

73'▲A. Bayindir←▼C. Zajkowski

84'▲D. Ihendu←▼O. Köhl

84'▲K. Pestel←▼T. Meyer

84'▲Y. Freischlad←▼N. Atom

RB Leipzig U19 substitutes

KaufmannBayindirIhenduPestelFreischladGrabovskisPrüfrock

Manager: A. Arsovic

59'▲D.Kanyi←▼M. Kalini

82'▲H. Berjaoui←▼A. Akdağ

88'▲A. Aksoy←▼S. Akan

BAK 07 U19 substitutes

D.KanyiBerjaouiAksoyIpekYoussefKardamIraqi