RB Bragantino 1–2 Fortaleza EC: Result & Stats

RB Bragantino

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Fortaleza EC

8/17/2024

Serie A · Round 23Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

RB Bragantino56%

×Draw24%

Fortaleza EC21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RB BragantinoExpected goals in this matchFortaleza EC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.95

RB Bragantino

1.73

Fortaleza EC

0.95

RB Bragantino creates 82% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 7 away

1.33

creates per match

0.97

0.93

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

RB Bragantino

1.33

Fortaleza EC

0.97

allows per match

RB Bragantino

0.93

Fortaleza EC

2.12

+0.37scores more than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

RB Bragantino+0.37scores more

Fortaleza EC-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RB Bragantino ↓

Fortaleza EC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

RB Bragantino or draw

79%

RB Bragantino or Fortaleza EC

76%

Draw or Fortaleza EC

44%

Winning margin

RB Bragantino wins by 2+

31%

Fortaleza EC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

RB Bragantino 1+ goals

82%

RB Bragantino 2+ goals

52%

RB Bragantino 3+ goals

25%

Fortaleza EC 1+ goals

61%

Fortaleza EC 2+ goals

25%

Fortaleza EC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

RB Bragantino (draw refunded)

73%

Fortaleza EC (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RB Bragantino at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.93 · 20 matches

Fortaleza EC away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.12 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RB Bragantino attack 1.33 + Fortaleza EC defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.73

Fortaleza EC attack 0.97 + RB Bragantino defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

RB Bragantino scores more

56%

level

24%

Fortaleza EC scores more

21%

RB Bragantino at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "RB Bragantino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff